Executive Summary

New Zealand’s fresh apple industry is experiencing a recovery in production and export following the catastrophic damage caused by Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023. FAS/Wellington forecasts for marketing year MY 2026/2027 commercial apple production to reach 590,000 metric tons (MT) across 11,250 hectares of planted area. This volume will return the sector to pre-pandemic levels, marking the second-highest production level on record. This rebound is primarily supported by the maturation of young orchards established during post-cyclone redevelopment, alongside a concerted industry shift away from lower-returning traditional varieties like Braeburn and toward premium, high-value specialty apples such as Envy, Dazzle and Fuji.

Despite this volume growth, orchard profitability remains heavily pressured by a challenging financial and environmental landscape. On-farm inflation related to fuel, freight, electricity, and packaging costs is compounding debt levels, with horticultural sector borrowing doubling since 2018 to reach NZ$8.55 billion (US$4.87 billion) in August 2026. While interest rates have declined recently, these high debt balances leave growers acutely exposed to fluctuations in financing costs and export returns. Operationally, the sector continues to face structural labor constraints and relies on impending 2027 Recognized Seasonal Employer (RSE) reforms to stabilize its seasonal workforce. Furthermore, a strong El Niño weather event heading into the 2026/2027 summer poses significant production risks for eastern regions like Hawke’s Bay, forcing growers to rely heavily on irrigation infrastructure.

The domestic market is also shifting, with total consumption forecast at a record 183,450 MT, though elevated consumer food prices are keeping fresh consumption flat at 74,000 MT. The remaining surplus is fueling a highly efficient domestic processing industry in areas like Hawke’s Bay, driving apple juice exports toward the highest levels on record.

Fresh apple exports are forecast to hit 410,000 MT, their highest level since MY 2020/2021. New Zealand is leveraging its extensive free trade agreement network to maximize competitive advantages. Key Asian markets are driving this expansion, with exports to China rising 17.7% to command a 23% market share, while India surged 33.8%. Shipments to the United States face a 12.5 percent tariff enacted in July 2026, though specialty varieties and organic exports there continue to be streamlined by the critical USDA/APHIS offshore preclearance program.

Background

New Zealand ranks as one of the world’s top ten largest apple exporters, with climate and soils making it well-suited for apple production. Key growing regions such as Hawke’s Bay, Tasman and Central Otago have ideal conditions for growing apples, including sufficient winter chilling, warm springs, long sunshine hours in summer and dry growing areas. These areas also have reliable water resources to irrigate orchards, and as a result, almost all commercial orchards rely on irrigation. New Zealand also has well-established ports close to its apple and pear regions. The harvest season starts in January and finishes in June, with peak harvest for apples from March to May. Figure 1 shows the distribution of the country’s apple growing areas, mainly in the Hawke’s Bay region (over two-thirds of New Zealand’s trees), followed by the Tasman region.

Read the full FAS report here.

— By Robere Hall, USDA Foreign Ag Service